Stormy Weather

(Going around the LawFare clock, starting at upper left, are three “formers:” they are a President, an attorney, and Porn Star, On the line below, left to right, are a current New Jersey Senator, a President’s son and a Texas Congressman. The courtroom circuses of the past week have been diizzying. The players include Mr. Trump as a constant allegedly malevolent presence, with supporting roles by Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen. Their emotional testimony increasingly appeared more political than legal in the salacious details spewed in court. Pundits say the trial’s result will likely to be determined by Judge Merchan’s final instructions to the Jury before they begin their deliberations on an offense that may not actually be criminal. The wheels of Justice are grinding elsewhere as well. The President’s son is to be arraigned on old gun charges, and Congress has a rare bicameral event in progress with Senator Mendendez and Rep. Cuellar both facing corruption charges. Only those actually in court are depicted in colorful pastel).

This edition of the Daily got wrapped up in something else. We were instructed to “not think” by Management and the Legal Section about other matters and we have tried our best. Like everyone else in the nation during this interesting season. Not our fault.

Management told us to cease and desist from the current production product- the history we are attempting to write about living in the collapse of a great world power. They don’t mind us talking about it all the time, but an example of the confusion is contained in the caption to the portraits that starts this essay. like this. “LawFare Week” has been a tawdry spectacle as promised up in New York. Stormy Daniels testified in the Donald Trump “business accounting” trial. “Hush Money” is the other popular name for it.affair.

In last week’s events, the former porn star vaulted to the stand, and gave what some pundits called a “gripping, weepy” account of her time with the former television host who later occupied the White House. The press was agog, as were legal scholars, but for differing reasons.

That case had become a laughingstock, and the messaging de jour is about the crucial testimony of a disbarred attorney convicted for previous perjury under oath. You can see why Management wanted on something else to let this episode in the shambling lurch toward the Big Election slide by.

Since we are aware this case- would it ever have been justified- would warrant, at most, a misdemeanor charge. But Alvin Bragg is following through on his campaign brag to punish Donald Trump, elevating his charges to a felonious case. The Department of Justice and the Federal Election Commission had previously waved off any charges, so it was evident that this was just a part of the extensive LawFare campaign to get the presumptive GOP nominee in the next election.

The problem is that this shoddy case is the last one standing of the four that had been intended to keep the candidate tied up and locked down with gag orders through the campaign season. That Stormy’s testimony was the highlight of the international week with an Israeli offensive against the Hamas stronghold at Rafah in progress is enough to make us sigh.

Lawfare- not Rafah- appears to be a failed campaign, the legal one, anyway, since the other three have hit road-blocks on getting the gavel to come down and this is now the centerpiece of something that looks a bit like the incumbent is going to be shown to the door in an attempt to wrest another miracle victory for the people in power.

Anyway, Management told us to lay off for a minute and not think about it so we didn’t. Instead, we wound up back with the Green Book, which may exist someplace beside the Library section of the hard drive on the battered laptop we use for production.

Here is what we have been told to ignore: In what Red State called “one of the most shameful political dithers of the 21st century,” the Administration has tried to divide the baby on Israel, tap dance their way around the issue most of us support to try to appease a few thousand voters in Michigan’s Dearborn-istan. They have lost support of partisans on both sides.

We have little idea who is advising him, but they seem a bit delusional. One pundit typified the old political “middle of the road” as now being littered with yellow stripes and road kill. One left-of-center publication termed one of the new dismal polls bemoaning the situation as typical of “messaging mis-information.” From the New York Times.

So, you can see things are changing in a fairly dramatic manner. The stand in New York has been taken by Michael Cohen, former lawyer to the Candidate whose campaign must be destroyed at any cost. His testimony has the cloud of previous assorted perjuries to courts, Congress and the IRS under oath hanging over it. That is why we wound up with The Green Book. We promised not to think, so we didn’t. Instead, we went back to the backlist of Socotra House publications. It is a modest list of around a dozen titles, five or six of which are available for purchase. We sent a story last week that included a tip of our mental toppers to the first of those, the one titled “The Adventures of Nick Danger, Third Eye.”

That is where the Legal Department got involved, since there is a relatively innocuous copyright issue tangled up in it. By way of background, we did not know we were writing a book at the time. The book started as a compendium of columns not unlike this one. It had been based on a popular comedy album of the time. Those things were flat circles made of vinyl that spun around on moving discs to produce sounds. This one was done by a group called “The Firesign Theater.” They in turn had borrowed their characters from long-dead novelist and political activist Dashiell Hammett.

The material we published in the ship’s thin foolscap newspaper was all produced by us and was all original. When it turned out to be moderately successful as a relic of interesting time we found our rights to what we had produced might better be characterized as a “derivative copyright.” We learned a lesson back then that the Management, Legal and Marketing Departments are still arguing about.

We are supposed to not be thinking, so we did. That took us back to a copyright not derived from anyone else. It was an unpublished manuscript penned in cursive ink script scrawled between 1978-80. Things seemed crzy then, but we had no idea what was to come. It was titled as “Nippon Notes” on the cover the last time we saw it. We knew it as “The Green Book” because that was the color of the cover.

There were some interesting pictures drawn or pasted onto the pages, and it had no copyright issues with anyone except possibly the Iranian students who seized the US Embassy in 1979. We were just offshore for some of that hoo-haw, so considering the events of the last 45 years, that would have been a good place to start. Since the notebook itself has disappeared in the wake of history, there are more complications in any publication efforts.

Some parts were digitized and saved due to some amateurish drawings of places strewn across a voyage that included Asia, Australia, Africa and the Middle East. It was enough to keep us distracted back in those days. We will re-engage in some of that while the real stuff continues to unfold with such current drama. We will cover that, eventually, but this is a moment for Legal shenanigans in our present time before we get back to political hysteria when the pool opens after Memorial Day.
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Management doesn’t want legal issues, you know? And Marketing is hysterical for completely different reasons. They think they have to sell both new and old products in a simultaneous swirl!

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

Something Completely Different

We got caught up in that fight between the Writer’s Section, Legal and Marketing yesterday. They are in a tussel about a potential second edition of one of the old titles called “Stones of the District.” There are two of the interns from Marketing and Legal now iin the process of shredding one of the remaining hard copies of the book in order to re-digitize it for updating.

The point of controversy is publication rights on re-issue, which is not comlete without appending a new ISBN to the tome and ensuring we are not sued for old tresspasses. We think we are OK, since the events described happened a couple decades ago. It is and interesting contrast in our times, since back then it was a little dangerous in some points around the old square-shape of DC. Now it would almost certainly be fatal.

Management told us not to think until we were told what they wanted to hear. It is a matter of corporate policy. In the background? We were mildly interested in the tumult in the “Hush Money” trial up in New York, since it seems to feature crucial testimony by a disbarred and convicted perjurer. Entertaining, for sure, but that news also included a note about Senator Mendendez, a New Jersey incumbent who apparently keeps gold bars in the pockets of his old suits in his back closet. That is our current political system.

You can see Management’s concern. So, we could maunder about that and those sorts of social changes to incorporate in new books and new editions for old ones. The new book is already more than a hundred manuscript pages already. “Life in the Fall (of the Empire)” is about what is happening to us now. In the process of that effort, we have temporarily suspended production. We were pointedly reminded our efforts could cause inadvertent thought. Or worse, the act of “speculation” about what is about to happen to us next.

So, we wound up taking a trip in time to avoid thinking about it. The topics available? Jeeze, that required extra hard non-thinking, and we tried to limit it to events more than 40 years in the past. Some of them are family-created and hang on the walls of the Chairman’s office. like these:

(Bill Reddig- “WER”- did these while a cadet at Naval Air Station Pensacola in 1945. He later was able to turn his artistic talents the design of sleek futurist autos for the Space Age auto industry. But that is his future, not ours).

Those were fun, nicely turned out, and when not sketching his buddies in pen-and-ink, did cartoons for the “Gremlin Gazette,” the base newspaper. Or on laundry tags when no drawing paper was available.:

(We are in the process of trying to figure out who “Walt” might have been or what happened to him the better part of a century ago. But we are thnking about getting to the gym).

There is more to come on all this, plus other sketches from other people not quite as far in the past. But for today, we have been told not to over think things. We are happy to be compliant on tht front, anyway.

There will be more of this while we are not thinking. Meat, the guy stuck with marketing what is actually available from the back-list has the expression you would think. This is how he looked after the meeting yesterday:

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vcsocotra.com

Escalation Messaging

It is a week jammed with anniversaries, some of them a little disquieting. Today, for example, is VE Day- “Victory in Europe, 1945” as we also observe something unfolding in Europe again some eight decades later. We will talk about that tomorrow, in the context of Russia’s observation of the Soviet Victory Day that we hope is not a forecast. But one element of that is on orbit above us this morning.

We are trying not to be too alarmist in analyzing the situation, since our information is derived from information streams intended to cause reaction. But recognition of the streams and their purpose is part of the attempt to conduct our affairs in a situation in which a recent Rasmussen poll indicates “Likely voters” (1,100 actual samples representing 100 million notional voters) consider a civil war in America is likely (47-49% “Likely” or “Unlikely”).

Results are part of an election year flurry of messaging bounded by a five-year event horizon. Personally, we think it more likely represents some trouble in messaging before November. Views of course diverge on that matter. Concern about it emerged in the weekly business development last week, which is normally more on bid-and-proposal issues. For messaging? The memories of ancient victories competes with current kinetic events on unknown trajectories.

There was some background noise in messaging that included information on nuclear weapons. That has popped in and out of the news memes since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. That layer of nuclear noise lies uneasy against the longer campaign against nuclear power, which we are supposed to fear while plastering the landscape with wind-farms and solar panels.

The percentages of use for both is a bit daunting, since solar is only useful when the sun is shining, and the wind produces only about 35% of the power rating stamped on the capacity plates. It don’t always blow when you need it, you know? And they have to be replaced every fifteen to twenty years, charitably. Without re-cycling, since the blades and concrete to support the towers can’t be.

You have already heard the anti-nuke power meme most of your life if you are an adult. It started with mis-information, which is a combination of true things like the disasters at Chernobyl and Three Mile Island and alarmism. The whole story should include safe operating of much of our Navy on nuclear power for a half-century. It was of little concern to work and live with them.

The messaging parallels the account of Russian interference in the 2016 election we heard about for nearly two years, interfering with establishing a working government after Hillary’s ignominious defeat at the hands of a sometimes controversial game-show host. It was true, to a degree. The 51 former IC officials who declared the story to have had “classic Russian characteristics” were accurate. They just did not say who actually was using those tactics.

We know now, but that bit of chicanery has now been shunted off as just “old news.” The technique in strategic messaging has evolved a bit as well, but relies on finding a statement of some truth, and then beating it into consonance with the message you actually want to convey. And to which you want a desired response.

That sums of the whole intent of the next book in progress at Socotra House. We have a draft title for the work that is along the lines of “Life at the Fall of Rome.” In it, we attempt to apply some objective analysis to the hysterical messaging streams and make sense of who wants us to believe what, from moment to moment. We are trying to capture the direct impact of that messaging on the decision-making that will rule the next few months.

Or maybe the fate of the world.

That is part of the current nuke issue. It contains several active messaging streams, The oldest of those is the energy part, of course. It has been effective, and curtailed reactor development around the world. That is only one aspect of the current atomic controversy. The other is a reprise of even older horrors, going back to the Cuban Missile Crisis. We lived with images of atom clouds in grade-school and their lingering impact all our adult lives..

The US and the Russians played that game to vast extent across the Cold War. The publicized numbers of the nuke inventories the two nations built is mind-boggling, and the nukes remained after the Soviet Union fell. 6,000 is the reported number in the Kremlin arsenal, plus the missiles, bombers and submarines required to launch them.

The Press asserts the US reportedly maintains about 4,000 nukes and the inventory of systems to deliver them. That was the old balance of power, with other much smaller inventories in places like the UK and France. A recurrent theme is from China, with their aggressive building program that would place it as the third largest nuclear power. That had previously been in the “what if” category of nuclear discussion. The Ukraine conflict has brought a new aspect to that discussion.

This one is about the Russians, whose war has not played out the way Mr. Putin had intended. Considering the arsenal in his possession, the question then became what role it might have in resolving an intractable WW-1 style conflict. The traditional answer has always been a binary one, with “peace” determined by the mutual reluctance to end civilization. Considering the amount of resources devoted to simply maintaining the respective inventories, of weapons and delivery systems, the temptation for strategic planners abounds. It turned naturally to exploration of using them in a manner that secured advantage without engulfing the world stage in flames.

You could say that this phase is playing out now. At the business meeting there were some comments about what is means in terms of the concept of the old term “escalation.” For those who have been in the nuclear business, old concepts reappeared. One of them discussed was use of atomic detonations not to directly strike ground targets. Instead, the intent would be to detonate something high in the atmosphere that would produce a pulse of electromagnetic energy (EMP) powerful enough to fry the circuits of all electronic devices within the immense line-of site dependent on height of the blast.

You can see there could be room for confusion in executing that scenario, depending on the number of devices launched (or carried) in a demonstration that could rapidly transform into mass exchange. The inclination would thus be to minimize the possibility of catastrophe by demonstrating a capability rather than initiation of a massive first strike. There are other approaches, of course.

Last week the controversy was about what may be another trial balloon launched by the planners. We had to poke around a bit, since the discussion about “atomic escalation” includes a new nuclear calculus. An increasing number of powers are at the threshold of acquiring nuclear arsenals, and their experience is not 80 years in duration, but “maybe next week.” Most notable (at this moment) is Israel (confirmed a dozen weapons) and Iran (getting to within 6% of the enrichment necessary for a fission-based weapon). India, Pakistan and North Korea are in the mix as well, with the possibility that possession of a single weapon could spark discussion of how it might be used.

Despite having the largest inventory on Earth, Russia’s mostly conventional adventure in Ukraine has been littered with failure. In terms of messaging, it is not surprising that Putin has had to wave the nuke banner around, since it represents one area of undisputed leadership. But it also carries the risk that attended the long Cold War. The question is: what lies between the current situation and sudden mass obliteration?

That is one of the matters flying about this week. The use of nukes for an EMP attack still has a highly visible effect on the earth below. Is there another means of performing an atomic demonstration without directly attacking the homelands of the opposition? A way to convey the intensity of emotion without direct assault? What about a weapon directed not at targets on earth, but in the heavens above. Perhaps things on low earth orbit, like satellites that collect and disseminate information? Or provide the GPS data that enables efficient drones to accurately evade and conventionally hit targets on the battlefield.

That could demonstrate resolve and capability without hitting earthly targets (directly) and no humans (except possibly those on the International Space Station) scorched.

You can see something demonstrated on orbit would represent a new space in the definition of escalation. Options now? Heated rhetoric. Next? Transition from the reported “testbed system” on orbit to a dramatic single detonation? Here is what is floating around this week:

“U.S. government officials have indicated Russia already has some kind of clandestine testbed in space as part of its development of a “nuclear-armed low-earth orbit (LEO) anti-satellite weapon.”

That would present a new spectrum in the nuclear game that side-steps deterrence and limits targets to high-value but extraterrestrial objects.

This comes just days after another senior official warned Congress that this “indiscriminate” weapon could be capable of rendering the LEO completely unusable for a prolonged period of time.

We are not claiming that is likely or inevitable, but we do know people have been thinking hard about how to transition nukes from the “end of the world” scenario to an employable tool in warfare not on earth but in the heavens.

Some of those capabilities are reported to be in the process of deployment now. We will be watching with interest to see the messaging that will come as a new strategic space is filled with deadly capabilities.

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

The (Monday Morning) Fight With Marketing

It is clear and blue out there on The Patio. Still a bit chill, and the first Production Meeting of the new week lurched into immediate conflict. This did not directly involve the Writers Section, though it was the venue for the first company dispute about production priorities. There is plenty swirling here in town, with Congress trying to wrap up old business before the Memorial Day break. Marketing was struggling with Legal and the Writers about how to organize the new launch campaign the Chairman has directed.

Root of the trouble in the Socotra House Spring initiative? The Chairman had been reading some statistics on the number of car-jackings in the Metro area, and he summoned Splash and some other Salty Scribblers to recall one of the early projects the company had issued twenty years ago. That one had been an attempt to understand the dynamics of the District, and the part of it that had been returned Virginia in 1846 after discovering it was ungovernable. We call it “Arlington” these days, since R.E. Lee’s family house is just up the street.

We were going to run an update on that, since “Stones of the District” was a memorable account of visits to all 40 of the pale Stones that were placed to mark the boundaries of the District of Columbia. The inspiration for the exploration was one of those Metro Section articles in the Post about local history and the odd things people find in their back or side yards. the Stones had once stood alone in their one-mile intervals, hacked out of the tangled undergrowth on land donated by Maryland and Virginia to form the capital of a new Republic carved out of the King’s colonies.

It turned out to be a little more complicated than the Post article had suggested. It is possible to see some of the Stones- even most- in a single relatively complex drive in an urban landscape. There are others, like the one we call SE-9, that took three attempts to visit. With paddles and kayaks on the Potomac. The book was grand fun, since there had been an element of danger in visiting some of the Stones.

Now, something fairly simple might just leave you stranded or dead.

Anyway, the thought had been to drag the book back in a new edition that compared the way things were at the beginning of the nation, in the go-go Millennial days, and now, in what appears to be the decline of a pretty cool global power.

They sent Meat up from Marketing to explain the whole campaign. He is a big bluff fellow with a certain lugubrious aspect to a pleasant face. His first name is Walter or something boring, so he got the callsign he goes by from the association with his last name. That had started civilian life as something related to being “smart,” like the term “Clever.” The Navy had turned that into a harder, more assertive pronunciation that transformed him into the walking personification of a Meat Cleaver.

So that is what he brought to this morning meeting. He waved around the slide that starts this edition of The Daily Socotra. It was supposed to display the backlist titles, leading up to the Big Launch for hte New Book: “A Little Traveling Music.” He has a pitch about that we will get to presently. But the Chairman’s desire to drag up the second edition issue for the Stones book was causing direct problems.

We were happy to take a look at it. It is actually still available on Amazon in a paperback version at a frankly outrageous cost. The only problem in updating it is that that the digital manuscript is probably on that old black IBM laptop we have not seen since we moved the Headquarters from Suite 107 to 109 at Big Pink, or from from 109 down to the Farm when all that other archival stuff disappeared.

Splash had a copy of the expensive paperback that he waved around:

“We can recreate the digital version by shredding the binder off, scanning each individual page into .docx format, editing with the Chairman’s observations and pithy commentary. We are happy to participate in the latter, though think we might be able to get someone from Marketing or Legal to do the shredding and scanning.”

The Writers Section, as usual, has been directed to not think until Legal is happy with what Marketing has proposed as a bold new way forward on exactly who is going to get the scissors to start carving up the old edition. We will leave that to the Departments concerned, and which we hope will do the work.

As a start, we have agreed not to think. Maybe tomorrow, you know?

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

A Day for Mothers (and Others!)

Tough one this morning. News of departures from this world lent a shadow as pervasive as the gray clouds that obscured the Aurora of the big solar storm. Let’s gt the ceremonial and honorific part done first. It is Mother’s Day. We interred the one with whom we were privileged to participate tangentially in the great Miracle of birth. And life. Ignore the callow young man on the right and concentrate on the raucous laughter radiated by the new Mother on the left who brought such love to so many.

That brought us through the cascade of the rest of the pile of action items. There was the matter of the mail-in ballot we don’t recall requesting. It arrived to participate in the election here in Virginia next month. It is a primary, and a somewhat unusual one in that it is a “joint” exercise with both parties. The incumbent Senator was the only one we had planned on voting against, but since we will have the chance to do that again in November, we were uncertain about participating.

We could drone on about that exercise in a new form of voting since it is intended to give us confidence in the security of the process. In the years we have been participating in General Elections (since 1972) we showed up at the polls and showed a picture ID to vote. That changed with the Navy days, and use of mail-in ballots from ships in Japan or garrisons in Korea.

Here in Virginia there was an accommodation to folks with competing requirements or disabilities. We were permitted to stop by the Registrar’s office, get in a short line, produce a photo ID and mark a piece of paper before feeding it into an electronic scanning machine. We were fairly confident in the security of that system, or at least we were until the revelations about the machines having some back-door algorithms that permit folks outside the government to observe vote totals as they occur. Or need to be corrected.

I guess we will see about that this time. Considering what is at stake, it is worth watching. We filled out our mail in packages, the ballot, two envelopes with bar-codes displayed visibly, and handed it off to the maintenance staff to trundle down to the lobby for placement in the Big Pink communal mailbox.

The literature that accompanied the ballot package assured us we could track the status of our submission. We will do so. They will be able to tell us if they received the ballot, marked our submission and could proudly wear the lapel sticker “I voted!” They just won’t be able to tell us if who we voted for actually got counted that way.

So, there is that uncertainty that accompanies everything else. We mentioned the memorable memorial ceremony for the woman with whom we raised some great kids. Shortly after the conclusion of that service, word popped out of the ether that the Reaper had been active elsewhere. There was a cascade of news about his latest swath through the circle of friends and family.

This one was of a former senior in the Naval Intelligence Community, a wonderful and dynamic man named Larry Wright. He had a personal impact on many of us, and the Salts were active in talking about him. His biography was impressive to read, although limited mostly to his considerable accomplishments in uniform, and the shared recollections of his time with shipmates who served under him. You can see from his picture the sort of impression he made when it was taken. Rest in Peace, Larry. The passing of a generation- when it is the one you share- is a bit startling.

So there was that and then the other news. The new book is lurching toward publication, and the marketing folks jostled the line of interns dispatched from the Legal Section to provide oversight were edged aside. The marketing folks are excited, since their last effort for “Voyage from to the CROSSROADS” exceeded expectations in completing the Literary Trifecta of work about our 93-year-old drinking buddy, Admiral “Mac” Showers, our last Cold War Cruise and the momentous consequences of the atomic blasts down at Bikini Atoll.

Marketing guys are slick, and always worth a drink at lunch for levity. They are pushing the Writer’s Section to finish the next book, the one about this strange year and history of weird things that have not happened yet. Or the proposed second edition of “Stones of the District,” an account of visiting all 40 of the monuments (or sites) that comprise the boundaries of the District of Columbia. The new edition is justified on the grounds that attempting the same sort of tour these days would result in being car-jacked or killed.

Anyway, they started their pitch to the group with a single slide before lurching into the rest of the literary litany of the back-list of Socotra House publications, most available on Amazon or Barns & Nobel. You will see all of them, but here is the first:

We are afraid there is more to come on that front, but we hope the next holiday requiring action is not impending until the Big Pink Pool opens!

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vcsocotra.com

TANSTAAFL

Author’s Note: The memorial service for Jane Reddig is scheduled for 11:00AM this morning at Kirk in the Hills in Bloomfield Hills, MI. Visit the Kirk’s website at the “worship from home” tab to join the Livestream coverage.

– Vic

TANSTAAFL

(This colorful chart is lifted from the Powerline blog. We do not know the source of the data, though the Bureau of Labor Statistics is cited in adjacent verbiage).

Robert Heinlein’s prophetic science fiction epics were part of growing up for some of us around the table. His influence transcended the SF genre with things like “There Ain’t No Such Thing As A Free Lunch.” That was shortened in his book “The Moon is a Harsh Mistress” down to the acronym TANSTAAFL. And then into the world of economics.

We hate to beat this to death and swear we will go back to mildly amusing commentary, but the partisan aspects of all the noise is getting lost in the disparity in messaging. The gulf between streams is now so vast now that we don’t seem to be talking about the same things.

“What is the best way we can stay stable and good for the most people?” can cause immediate and passioned disagreement. Tech and enhanced personal communications is part of it, but there also the misdirection. The President got some inflation statistics wrong early in the week, and didn’t get called out on the matter. So any number these days that we see has already been in front of a focus group for messaging. But the prices above are just a snapshot of a single discrete product regularly consumed by millions of people.

The Big Mac was part of a successful commercial empire. Tasty food served hot and fast and fairly cheap. Transportation networking made them centers of activity all their own. They were the first-go jobs for generations of teens.

Now, a Big Mac is running well over five bucks, which is double what a whole meal used to cost. We know, we know, we here are tired of hearing and reading all the numbers. But there still are some plain consequences to the blather that goes along with them. The argument we have heard flow downward, from a “well, everything costs a little more because it has to be sustainable” perspective. The other one is “corporate greed.”

We are normally opposed to other people’s greed, particularly if they are bigger than we are. But increasing costs force a choice, you know? Raise prices to accommodate dramatic increases? Lower profits for some uncompensated (and unspecified) public good?

Except what is happening is not. Here are the some of the pressures on the Big Mac.

Minimum wage. That is a direct shot at the hourly workers flipping patties and ringing things up. Is that good for them? Maybe for those who keep jobs. But not so much for those who gt laid off, or customers cued up to order from a touch-screen or backed up in a drive through attempting to utilize an ordering app.

That is just the simple economic side of thing, with similar pressures on all interacting supply and labor sectors. There are other social ones. Reduced service due to increased costs passes a little inconvenience and cost to all customers. Dietary restrictions required by a growing market segment requires segregated cooking surfaces for some products. There is inclusivity at war with the ability to make a profit while equally satisfying the majority of the market.

Bill Heinlein said it eloquently. No lunch is free, and if it was offered, someone else paid for it. With this unsustainable sustainability kill all sorts of products? And make all our lives a little crappier? That seems to be the Purtanical thought.

As to Big Macs, Could it kill the chain? That is a possibility. If the cows could read our textually transmitted politics, they might attempt to press “1,” for English.

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.visocotra.com

Weather Report: A Mother’s Day Carrington Event?

(The usual caption to the seven day forecast image is “yeah,” and “all the stuff above is happening.”)

We would normally update the overnight developments on existing streams of our chaotic current events with some pithy observations. We are not going to have to do that, since there are reports of a coming storm that could smack us in the electromagnetic space-face at mid-day today.

Word came out after weather reporting closed yesterday. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) warned all of us to increase our vigilance heading into this Mother’s Day weekend. They say it could be a “G4-level” event, second highest on the scale. Not that we aren’t at heightened readiness about all sorts of improbable stuff these days. But the Experts warn us that it could be as big an event as the one observed back in 1859, the first recorded solar storm.

Back then, Astronomer Richard Christopher Carrington collected some extraordinary data during Solar Cycle 10 of September of that year. At its peak, the event created strong auroral displays reported globally, causing sparking, disruptions and even fires in multiple telegraph stations. You can only imagine the impact on today’s widely connected- and fragile- digital age.

So there is that possible excitement to come, since the effect of a major solar pulse could also take down the power grid, leaving us in the dark this evening. It is a sort of eerie reminder about the possibilities of an atomic blast in Low Earth Orbit, which Moscow has been muttering about for the last few days.

With Mid-Day looming, we will eschew the details on the latest Supreme Court opinion or the salacious details of the Hush Money trial in New York, which is part of a continuing melt down of the LawFare campaign in the current election campaign. We will see how that goes, and we can catch up tomorrow morning. If there is power on the grid and the micro-circuits are chirping happily!

(We are currently riding on the pleasant blue blob to the left. The big boiling thing on the right is the source of the Mother’s Day potential Carrington Event, the bright orb of heaven surrounding the blue place we live. Photo Skywatch Media).,

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

Victory Day

(May 9th is Victory Day in what was known for many years as the Soviet Union. It commemorates the defeat of a savage despot who invaded the Russian homeland and the more successful Soviet invasion of Poland and eventual conquest of Berlin. Red Square Victory Day photo 1998 SOCOTRA).

We have not shared the image above since the Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF) SEMINAR 17, SPACE, dragged its collective butts back from a Moscow trip at the end of the previous century. We didn’t spread it around at the time because as you can see, it is a little blurry and not a particularly good shot.

Contained in the darkness of that Red Square night, there is only a single and somewhat forlorn burst of fireworks visible to the right of the historic onion domes. The panoramas of Red Square are better covered in daylight, of which we had more than expected, since the Seminar trip to visit space-industry sights up in Leningrad had been abruptly cancelled due to some simmering dispute between Washington and Moscow.

We were used to those sorts of things in those days, and that is useful considering the changes apparent today. But today’s iteration of the celebration has re-emerged as a symbol of Russia’s proud tradition and Vladimir Putin’s personal contribution in bringing back greatness after the greater Soviet collapse in 1991.

This morning, for Victory Day 2024, Russia wrapped itself in patriotic pageantry as President Putin celebrated his re-inauguration as the Russian Czar in consonance with that of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. He hailed his own victory by cheering the bravery of his forces fighting in Ukraine. He took a moment to also blast the West for “fueling conflicts around the world.”

We have been talking about the concept of “change” around the picnic table out on the concrete Patio after the morning production meeting of the Writer’s Section. That is the transition from organizing the afternoon and determining whether or not to have one or three martinis with lunch.

This Victory Day is change personified. We attended the celebration in 1998 Moscow with our own feeling of victory. We represented the Industrial College, which demonstrates the essence of change. Back then, the title of the school was direct albeit plebian in tone. It represented an effort by the US military educate its leadership on the essential role of logistics support in accomplishing military missions.

There were a variety of crucial topics divided by Seminar groups. Technology, production and transportation were some of them. Our group was assembled of those interested in civilian space-launch capabilities, since that seemed to be an area of growth with the Cold War then over

Events have born that contention out with Elon Musk and a host of orbiat innovation. The trips to launch complexes in the U.S. France and Russia were an enticement. This is what some of them looked like, including Natasha, the Russian spokeswoman:

(Our guide Natasha and her dog Mika explain the technology of former Soviet satellites in Moscow. Photo Socotra. Fashions: Moscow Institute of Industrial Fashion. Photo Socotra.)

We filled up the suddenly empty time between cancelled flight from Moscow with ordinary tourist activities. The ones with great vistas tinged with a certain vodka-induced haze. On our return, we were certified as experts in what could someday be termed “civilian space launch” capabilities, innovative push up undergarments, space dogs and frequent flyer miles.

We proudly learned the school’s motto: “Claws-O-Witz.” It was a tribute to the great German logistician, not our touch football team.

The Pentagon also recognized ‘change’ was at hand and the institution needed to adapt to new times after 9/11. The name of the institution went back to its founding days as the Army Industrial College (AIC) in 1924, under the leadership of the legendary logistician and Wall Street tycoon Bernard Baruch. The problems of mobilization for the great European conflict of World War demonstrated a need for better understanding of how to raise and channel the industrial base to win wars. It went joint to accommodate the needs of both Army and Navy as ICAF, long before the creation of the Air Force

Our class was part of a line that went back to the first class of nine students more than seventy years before we arrived at Ft. McNair. ICAF awarded us Master of Science degrees in what they termed “National Resource Strategy,” which included special emphasis on material acquisition, joint logistics and integration.

After our graduation and return to duties devoted to more ordinary national security matters, the school took up the matter of strategic messaging in support of national resource management. The name of the school on the other side of the Potomac was changed to honor one of the great figures of the generation we know honor as “The Greatest.” In 2012, ICAF became the Dwight D. Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy.”

Alumni were not contacted about what appears to be a certain redundancy in the new name, but we are not changing the wording on the diplomas that have been gathering dust in the storage locker.

So, the memories of that night in Moscow darkness showered with the bright light of explosions a quarter century ago is bright on this cloudy morning. We pay tribute to a shared triumph over the forces of fascism in 1945, to those who struggled in the long chilly aftermath, and to the rising generation who will have to deal with the changes to come. Some of those were in the media messaging this morning, as students here in town are calling- earnestly- for the guillotine of their university president.

Some of the next generation of players in national strategies are already getting ready.

(Russian Victory Day Parade preparations, 05 May 2024. AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko).

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

Weather Report: A Mother’s Day Carrington Event?

(The usual caption to the seven day forecast image is “yeah,” and “all the stuff above is happening.”)

We would normally update the overnight developments on existing streams of our chaotic current events with some pithy observations. We are not going to have to do that, since there are reports of a coming storm that could smack us in the electromagnetic space-face at mid-day today.

Word came out after weather reporting closed yesterday. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) warned all of us to increase our vigilance heading into this Mother’s Day weekend. They say it could be a “G4-level” event, second highest on the scale. Not that we aren’t at heightened readiness about all sorts of improbable stuff these days. But the Experts warn us that it could be as big an event as the one observed back in 1859, the first recorded solar storm.

Back then, Astronomer Richard Christopher Carrington collected some extraordinary data during Solar Cycle 10 of September of that year. At its peak, the event created strong auroral displays reported globally, causing sparking, disruptions and even fires in multiple telegraph stations. You can only imagine the impact on today’s widely connected- and fragile- digital age.

So there is that possible excitement to come, since the effect of a major solar pulse could also take down the power grid, leaving us in the dark this evening. It is a sort of eerie reminder about the possibilities of an atomic blast in Low Earth Orbit, which Moscow has been muttering about for the last few days.

With Mid-Day looming, we will eschew the details on the latest Supreme Court opinion or the salacious details of the Hush Money trial in New York, which is part of a continuing melt down of the LawFare campaign in the current election campaign. We will see how that goes, and we can catch up tomorrow morning. If there is power on the grid and the micro-circuits are chirping happily!

Inline image
(We are currently riding on the pleasant blue blob to the left. The big boiling thing on the right is the source of the Mother’s Day potential Carrington Event, the bright orb of heaven surrounding the blue place we live. Photo Skywatch Media).,

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

May Day 1971

(Woman perched atop a shaggy young man in the May Day protest at the Capital in Washington, DC. Image courtesy “wagingnonviolence.org”).

We were going to go with a tale about the unfolding story of attempts to escalate tension in nuclear relations- there is some disturbing Escalation in progress. You will see us cover it presently, since it is a classic demonstration of profound generational change on this day in May.

Mules is one of the Older Salts of the highest quality. He harnesses his old messaging skills to produce dramatic PowerPoint presentations about places, times and people. He produced one that echoes this morning. It is the 70th Anniversary of the French defeat at their strongpoint at Dien Bien Phu. The terms of reference are unusual to us now, so he clarified. “The French relied on air support to keep the garrison complex supplied, since the roads and rails were too dangerous for transit.”

Attempting to do the same thing with our own military twenty years later makes it a poignant topic. It has echoes in the current campus protests about the situation in Gaza this morning as the Israelis open the offensive against Hamas at Rafah. Splash has been reading up on the events, and jumped in.

He waved a printed copy of a news story that claimed some of the Hamas fighters in Gaza refused to evacuate targets the Israelis were about to destroy. They also refused to move their children. We have no information on what their wives thought.

DeMille frowned from the head of the picnic table “Looks to me like the IDF will take the east side of the Rafah Zone first, then squeeze HAMAS into the seaside corner of the enclave. Then they will eliminate them in response to the 1,300 Israelis killed and taken hostage back in October. If they’re smart, they’ll move fast even at the expense of higher casualties.”

That provoked more frowns of disbelief. We would never have warned anyone in the targets we hit, since we could get hurt doing it. Rocket put his mug of coffee down with a ceramic thump that made one of the robins lurch out of the bushes. “And yet to be seen is the reaction of Iran’s other proxies in this mess. What will they do? Iran already heaved more than 3,000 rockets. How about Hizballah in the north and the Houthis in the south?”

That comment sparked another vigorous discussion about the willingness of True Believers to commit familial suicide. As a group, we had been willing to take risks only to protect ours, so it was a dramatic demonstration of alternate but committed reality.

That followed Mule’s slide presentation with images of gallant North Vietnamese hauling anti-aircraft guns over the hilly terrain with their muscles and determination.

That prompted more recollections since some of the Older Salts had their moments in (or around) Vietnam at the time. The younger ones didn’t, but did recall the times. Ollie laughed at the change. “I only intentionally went to a demonstration once back then. It was the big May Day demonstration in Washington,1971.”

We considered the date, now more than a half-century ago. Ollie lit up one of the irritating Lucky Strikes he keeps in a rolled up sleeve of his t-shirt. “It’s an interesting contrast to the ones in progress today. The old protest I saw began on Monday morning, May 3rd and lasted two days. The DC cops arrested over 12,000 people. In the largest mass arrest in U.S. history.So far, anyway. Participants were kids like we were. They drew their own straggly signs and got to DC however they could, thumbing or driving old cars. Without brand new tents.”

Rocket laughed. “I heard one lady got paid $300 a day last week to participate. That is muchbetter than minimum wage. And one of the important demands was for delivery of quality free food to the encampments.”

Ollie scowled before continuing pensively. “I was not a protestor, though of course my interest was influenced by the proximity of the Draft. I just wanted to observe what it was like. I told my folks I was going to take a trip. Then I threw some stuff in a backpack and hitch-hiked from Grand Rapids, Michigan down to the Capital. No trouble on that leg.”

“On arrival, I saw a crowd of dizzying size and energy, mostly piled up around the Federal Center downtown and the Pentagon on the west side of the Potomac. It was interesting in the scope of it, and mostly peaceful. But then things got violent and the mass arrests started. They were filling RFK Stadium with students and I decided that was enough of the experience and decided to go home before I wound up in a seat on someone’s 30-yard line.”

There were some ironic knowing glances around the Writer’s Section as he continued. “Once I decided to get out, I lifted my thumb and got a ride from a VW van with a group of Vietnam Vets Against the War. They were headed for Chicago or someplace and it was late afternoon when we hooked up. They did not want to drive all night, but we were all short on cash and a motel room for the crowd was too expensive. Near South Somerset, they decided to pull over and sleep in a rest stop by the highway.”

“I did not fully trust them and the pervasive scent of marijuana had me a little unsettled. I threw my sleeping bag over a shoulder and hiked up the hill from the rest area to a straggly tree line where I tried to make a nest under the branches in the chill. They were gone when I stirred after a hungry, restless night. I got another less committed ride west and made it home OK. I never again went willingly near a large crowd of angry people.”

Nick Danger is a little more quiet than he was in his days in the Fleet. Ollie’s account had him stirred up. “And the ones these days look like smacked asses. What amazes me is how frighteningly insecure they all are. They need the crowds, the attention, the paparazzi, the cameras and their their stories of sacrifice in the press…”

There was a proposal to drink to the doughty Vietnamese who hauled artillery with their hands and backs. We decided not to. Happy Hour is soon enough, and we decided to just drink to the memories of the generations now long gone.

Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com
www.vicsocotra.com